This being the Swing State project, one of the hottest topics of discussion on the front page and in the user diaries has been determining exactly which Republican-held districts are prime for targeting (see here, here, here, here and here for some examples).
Why don’t we take it a step a further with a little groupwork, SSP-style. If you’re so inclined, here’s what I’d like you to do: pretend that you’re the new DCCC Chair, Chris Van Hollen, and you’re drafting up a preliminary battle plan for 2008 in between intensive intervals of Frogger (or whatever retro arcade games they play in their spare time at the D-trip’s HQ). Obviously, you will be forced to commit a significant amount of resources into incumbent protection–but skip that part for now, other than keeping in mind that your resources are finite, and you won’t be able to target as many races to the same extent as you did in 2006. You will then turn your attention to the ripest Republican targets of 2008. You will need to draft a list of the following:
-Up to 15 top-tier, “must contest” districts. These are districts with vulnerable Republican incumbents where you will actively seek out a top-shelf candidate, fundraise aggressively for (i.e. Red To Blue designation), and target with significant independent expenditures in the general election campaign.-Up to 20 second-tier, “maybe” districts. These are districts that could potentially become competitive. You will want to keep a close eye on these districts and try to encourage strong local candidates to throw their hat in the ring, but you will hold off aggressive fundraising or expenditure plans until the dynamics become more clear, at which point it’s entirely possible that some of these districts could be substitutes or additions to your list of first-tier races.
-A list of “no” districts (as many as you’d like, but at least 5)–districts that might have been competitive in the past or have been targeted in the past that you feel are probably beyond the Democrats’ reach in 2008, or simply not worth the tremendous investment. These are districts where you will take no active involvement whatsoever, and let the local grassroots make whatever they will of the race.
This should be fun!
I’m going to be lazy and opine on just Michigan, which is what I know.
Michigan’s 7th should be in the must-contest. Walberg is a freshman who is way too conservative for his district. There’ll be plenty of ammo in the next couple years. Yeah this district has a Republican tilt, but not too bad.. and he won with less than 50% against a Dem candidate who raised only $50,000. He can be knocked off by a credible candidate. This is a top tier race.
Michigan’s 9th is a solid maybe. Knollenberg has been an incumbent forever, but he’s old. He’s already announced he’s running again, but if we get a credible candidate he may decide to retire rather than going through a dogfight. He only won by 5% last time, against an underfunded candidate with little name ID. If she ran again and could raise more money this time, or if somebody with a name and fundraising ability stepped up, he could be beat. The district is pretty much a 50-50 district at this point.
In my opinion all other races in Michigan would be distant maybes, pending good candidates and/or Republican scandals.
AL-06(Spencer Baucus): This was once a very competitive district that had been represented by moderate Democrats in the past. However, the 1991 redistricting turned this into one of the most Republican in the country by reducing its black population from nearly 40% down to a slim 6%. Bush got nearly 80% of the vote here and we should not waste our time with a candidate.
TX-11(Conaway): Another district where Bush got nearly 80% of the vote.
TX-19(Neagubauer): See TX-11
TX-04(Hall): Bush got 70% here, move along.
TX-13(Thornberry): See TX-11
TX-08(Brady): See TX-04
OK-03(Lucas): What used to be a competitive district is now solidly Republican. Bush got 72% here and I see little reason to invest in this one.
KS-01(Moran): Pretty much the same as OK-03.
I know there are others, but can’t think of them off the top of my head right now.
15 to target:
1 NC-08 (Hayes) R+3
2 LA-04 (McCrery) R+7
3 PA-15 (Dent) D+2
4 NV-03 (Porter) D+1
5 MI-09 (Knollenberg) R+0
6 NJ-07 (Ferguson) R+1
7 NM-01 (Wilson) D+2
8 OH-15 (Pryce) R+1
9 AZ-01 (Renzi) R+2
10 MI-07 (Walberg) R+2
11 MI-11 (McCotter) R+1
12 IL-10 (Kirk) D+4
13 NY-13 (Fossella) D+1
14 IL-11 (Weller) R+1
15 NY-25 (Walsh) D+3
20 to consider:
1 CT-04 (Shays) D+5
2 PA-06 (Gerlach) D+2
3 FL-13 (Buchanan) R+4
4 IL-06 (Roskam) R+3
5 NY-26 (Reynolds) R+3
6 CO-04 (Musgrave) R+9
7 PA-18 (Murphy) R+2
8 CA-04 (Doolittle) R+11
9 WY-AL (Cubin) R+19
10 CA-26 (Dreier) R+3
11 VA-11 (Davis) R+1
12 PA-03 (English) R+2
13 WA-08 (Reichert) D+2
14 MN-02 (Klein) R+3
15 NY-03 (King) D+2
16 OH-02 (Schmidt) R+13
17 FL-08 (Keller) R+3
18 IA-04 (Latham) D+0
19 OH-01 (Chabot) R+1
20 WV-02 (Capito) R+5
5 to abandon this cycle:
1 CA-50 (Bilbray) R+5
2 MN-06 (Bachmann) R+5
3 KY-04 (Davis) R+12
4 NV-02 (Heller) R+8
5 VA-02 (Drake) R+6
Top-Tier
CT-04
FL-13
IL-10
MI-07
MI-09
NC-08
NJ-07
NV-03
NY-25
NY-29
OH-02
OH-15
PA-06
PA-15
WA-08
Second-Tier
AZ-01
CA-04
CO-04
FL-08
IL-06
IL-11
MI-11
MN-06
NE-02
NJ-05
NM-01
NV-02
NY-03
NY-26
OH-01
PA-03
VA-02
VA-11
WV-02
WY-AL
Give-ups
CA-50
ID-01
KY-04
NE-03
WA-05
First of all, without getting Florida, Ohio, Georgia, and Texas redrawn, I’m having to work pretty hard just to find 30 seats total.
15 to target:
WA-08 Reichert
CO-04 Musgrave (should be open)
NV-03 Porter
NE-02 Terry
LA-07 Boustany — we’re gonna be turning everyone out for Landrieu anyway, why not
IL-10 Kirk
OH-15 Pryce
MI-07 Walberg
NY-25 Walsh
NY-03 King
NJ-07 Ferguson
PA-06 Gerlach
PA-15 Dent
IA-04 Latham
NM-01 Wilson
I went pretty heavy for bluedistrict Rs, even ones that seem solid, cause it’ll be a presidential year and probably one with big D turnout. Also chose some swing state Rs cause there’ll be amp-ed up presidential turnout operations in-state.
Second tier:
A lot of these are redder districts where our presidential nominee makes a big difference. Running under Hillary or Obama or Edwards makes three pretty different voter models.
AZ-01 Renzi (not if McCain is nominee)
IL-11 Weller
IL-06 Roskam
MI-09 Knollenberg
NC-08 Hayes
VA-02 Drake — think the military will have trended further our way by 08
PA-03 English
NY-13 Fossella
CA-04 Doolittle
WV-02 Capito
CT-04 Shays
OH-01 Chabot
ID-01 Sali
IL-08 Hastert
NY-29 Kuhl
WA-05 McMorris
FL-13 Buchanan
PA-18 Murphy
Give up (at least for this cycle):
WY-AL Cubin — will probably retire, but can we win open seat with presidential turnout?
CO-05 Lamborn
NE-03 Smith
KY-04 Davis
OH-02 Schmidt — could she be beat with presidential turnout???
NY-26 Reynolds
I’m not very impressed with my own list, but I am impressed with how few seats I could come up with.
I am going to answer this post in a bit dirfferent way.
Defense Seats:
(the percentages are the results of the 2006 election)
TX 22nd Nick Lampson 52%
PA 10th Christopher Carney 53%
IA 9th Baron Hill 50%
KS 2nd Nancy Boyda 51%
LA 3rd Charlie Melancon 55%
NC 11th Heath Schuler 54%
IL 8th Melissa Bean 51%
IN 2nd Joe Donnelly 54%
GA 8th Jim Marshall 51%
WI 8th Steve Kagen 51%
AZ 5th Harry Mitchell 51%
CA 11th Jerry McNerney 53%
FL 16th Tim Mahoney 49%
NY 19th John Hall 51%
PA 4TH Jason Altmire 52%
AZ 8th Gabrielle Giffords 54%
NY 24th Michael Acuri 54%
MN 1st Tim Walz 53%
NH 1st Carol Shea-Porter 52%
IA 3rd Lenoard Boswell 52%
OR 5th Darlene Hooley 54%
Offense Seats:
Chris Shays(CT-4)
Mark Kirk(IL-10)
Heather Wilson(NM-1)
James Walsh(NY-25)
Jim Gerlach(PA-6)
Charlie Dent(PA-15)
David Reichert(WA-8)
Jon Porter(NV-3)
Peter King(NY-3)
Vito Fossella(NY-13)
Top tier (it’s more than 15, 23 to be precise):
CO-04
CT-04
FL-08
FL-13
IL-10
MI-07
MI-08
MI-09
MI-11
(Michigan will be crucial in ’08)
NV-03
NJ-07
NM-01
NY-03
NY-13
NY-23
NY-25
NY-26
NY-29
(Every New York Republican needs serious competition)
NC-08
OH-15
PA-06
VA-02
WA-08
Maybes (17):
AL-03
AZ-01
CA-04
FL-09
FL-15
IL-11
MN-02
MN-06
(Senate race in Minnesota could be big for Dems)
NE-01
NE-02
NJ-05
OH-01
OH-02
PA-03
PA-15
VA-10
VA-11
No’s (5):
CO-05
ID-01
NE-03
WA-05
WY-AL
(Without looking at the other comments on this thread)
The DCCC should do exactly what Van Hollen says it’s doing – focus on vulnerable Rs in blue districts, ethically damaged incumbents, and open seats in ’08, then pick off the remaining second-tier races as top-tier in ’10. That said:
Top Tier:
*AZ-01 – Renzi has a lot of baggage, and can be beaten.
*CA-04 – Dolittle is beatable. Brown’s already in.
*MN-06 – Bachmann’s crazier than her district. Need a good challenger instead of Wetterling.
*MI-07 – Same as MN-06. Good candidate can take Walberg out.
*NC-08 – Kissell is already in and raising money.
*NY-03 – King is way out of step with his district. The DCCC needs to get in this race early, for once.
*NY-13 – Ditto. Fossella is quite vulnerable.
*NY-25 – Walsh barely won in ’06 and represents a D district. We can take him out this time with a good challenger.
*OH-15 – Pryce barely hung on in ’06, and can be tipped over, though this is an expensive market.
*PA-15 – Dent, like Weldon in ’06, is a weak incumbent who’s never faced a strong challenger.
Second Tier:
*CO-04 – Musgrave’s margin of victory keeps shrinking. I want to see her gone, but this is a tough district and we need to focus on the more vulnerable races first. DCCC should run here to stay in the game, and focus on beating her in 2010, after the presidentials.
*CO-06 – Tancredo is likely to resign to run for president.
*CT-04 – Shays is a good fit for this district. We need to run someone other than Farrell to stand a chance.
*IL-06 – Rahm threw too much at this district and lost. Roksam is out of step and beatable, but this is an expensive market and there are better races to run in ’08.
*IL-10 – Kirk has weak approval and is beatable.
*NJ-02 – Voted no on stem cell bill in a very D district.
*NJ-03 – Ditto.
*NJ-07 – Ferguson is vulnerable, but entrenched, and this market is expensive.
*NM-01 – The DCCC has spent too much time and money targeting Wilson. If Domenici retires and Wilson runs for Senate, we can take this seat. Otherwise, we should give it a rest.
*NY-26 – Might be worth giving Reynolds another go with a credible candidate.
*NY-29 – Kuhl is a far-right wingnut in a rapidly bluing state, but even western NY is expensive to run ads in.
*NV-03 – Porter is vulnerable, but not enough to make this 1st tier.
*OH-01 – Chabot is vulnerable, but this is an extremely expensive, red-trending market.
*PA-06 – Run someone other than Lois Murphy, please!
*WA-08 – This district is moderate Republican Microsoft employees and millionaires. Reichert is tough to beat, but still vulnerable.
*WY-AL – Trauner v. Cubin rematch, with some DCCC media buys on his behalf? Media’s cheap here, and Trauner’s got a grassroots network already established.
Add ID-01 to this list if the Idaho GOP doesn’t have the good sense to primary Sali before the next election.
No:
*FL-all: Rematch in FL-13. Incumbent defense. No other challenges whatsoever. Vote fraud, expensive media market, state population trending R anyway. DNC can wisely re-invest millions if it moves FL funds to the rest of the country’s races, both in the Congressional and Presidential elections.
*KY-04: This district is just getting more conservative. Davis is crazy, but so are his constituents.
*IL-14: Never has had major DCCC support, nor should it. Hastert may be damaged, but he’ll be primaried and replaced. This is a GOP district at heart, and not worth our money.
*OH-02: “Mean Jean” shoots herself in the foot every five minutes, but this is an extremely Republican district and there are better races to devote resources to.
Target Districts `08
Top 15
CT-04
FL-13
IL-10
MI-07
MI-09
NC-08
NJ-07
NV-03
NY-25
NY-29
OH-02
OH-15
PA-06
PA-15
VA-02 (Rahm’s challenger was actually the weakest)
Next 20 :
WA-08
NM-01
AZ-01
CA-04
CO-04
FL-08
IL-06
VA-11
MI-11
MN-06
NJ-02 (LoBiondo already broke term limits D+4)
NY-13
NY-03
NV-02
IL-06
IL-11
OH-01
NE-02
FL-15
VA-04
Bottom 5:
NY-26 Reynolds
WY-AL Cubin
CO-05 Lamborn
WA-05 McMorris
VA-05 Goode (no matter how repugnant he is its just that kinda district)
Top 15 must targets:
AZ-01
CT-04
FL-13
IL-06
MI-07
NC-08
NJ-07
NM-01
NY-13
NV-03
OH-15
PA-06
PA-15
WA-08
VA-02
Next 30:
AL-03(35% African American)
CA-04
CA-26
CO-04
FL-08
FL-09(Social Security and Medicare are big here)
FL-22
IL-10
IL-11
IA-04
KY-04(Very poor district, a Democrat attacking Davis on economic issues and showing him on C-SPAN demeaning the poor would help)
LA-07
MI-08
MI-09
MI-11
MN-06(We need a pro-life Dem to run here)
NY-03
NY-29
OH-01
OH-02(Bring back Hackett)
OH-12
OH-14
PA-03
PA-18
SC-02(30% Black)
TX-32(Growing minority bloc)
VA-04(35% Black)
VA-10
VA-11
WV-02
These are all districts that we can win with a good candidate, however I think we are pushing it with OH-02 in a Presidential year.
Top (17)
AZ-01, corrution on the GOP side, throw in some well known D and we might have a shot
CT-04, Shays is last man standing, which means we can now team up on him
FL-08, Term limits, and 53% win in 06
FL-13, Jennings was a case of the Rahm candidate was better
IL-10, Kirk + National funding looks good to me
MI-07, hellooo extremist.
MI-09, Skinner did good, and Knollenberg might retire soon.
NV-03, We’ll be making a big move for the West on a presidential level, this looks good.
NJ-07, so close and that state should have more D reps anyway
NY-25, what would it be not to pick up a district in NY?
NC-08, Target Dole at the top, get a good Gov candidate and have them stump here.
OH-15, Pryce = leadership, do you like the GOP leadership?
PA-06, one last try without Murphy (shame, Lois was all right)
PA-15, time to go in hard, finally
WA-08, Man I hate M$ and think they deserve the same representation we get from their support staff, but Burner was cool. We should get her a Mac. 😀
WV-02, so under targeted after the coal mine collapse, maybe Manchin can help here
WY-AL, Perhaps the only district I was “crushed” by losing this year.
Second (24)
CA-04, corrution on the GOP side, Veteran on the Dem side
DE-AL, I smell open seat
FL-09, we’ll see how Florida looks for the Pres nominee
IL-06, We might do better not making it a marquee race with a local.
IL-11, not on the radar in 06, 55% win.
IA-04, what if we did start competing here?
LA-07, it was held by a Dem until he retired in 2004.
MI-08, close in 06, and MI will be big with Levin leading the state ticket
MI-11, close in 06, and MI will be big with Levin leading the state ticket
MN-02, this is more like seocnd and a half teir but eh . . .
NE-02, Mighty interesting numbers in 06 for not being targeted.
NJ-03, slight Dem movement in District, and it’s Jersey!
NJ-04, slight Dem movement in District, and it’s Jersey!
NM-01, Wilson has become a survior, we may just have to wait until 2012 and redraw her lines. She’ll see us comign with anything else and it’ll be a IL-06 money war again.
NY-03, start early
NY-26, candidate who campaignson on something besides immigration = we win.
NY-29, the pressure is not coming off of Kuhl, ever
OH-01, Need Strickland to set a good example.
OH-02, The Return of Hackett?
PA-03, Low numbers in 06
PA-18, Corruption strikes again, besides we have a TM on Murphy I think 😉
TX-10, shocking low numbers in 06 (all things considered).
TX-14, If Paul retires and we run someone from Galveston we can win it.
VA-02, Let’s see what candidate recruitment is like first.
Adios (6)
CO-04, sorry guys, I don’t see it happening, however if 04 nominee Stan Mutsanka (sp?) wants to go again, maybe.
CO-05, We’ll let Lampthorn be a poster boy for the Colorado GOP, it may help us elsewhere, besides, we’re investing in the senate there this time.
KY-02, still too red, maybe later though
KY-04, Ken Lucas was our only shot, and for some reason his heart wasn’t into it, focus on McConnel instead.
MN-06, let Bachmann build up a reputation of being crazy or let her be an example of what republicans are for all of Minnesota, we win either way.
NE-01, I had such high hopes here as well
I definitely can’t argue with those, but I guess I was looking for choices that were a little less obvious. I suppose I’m looking for people to say districts like KY-04 or WA-05 or NE-01… where the line is a bit murkier.
So many targets so many targets. It is silly to limit ourselves to twenty potential targets this early in the piece so my list is MUCH longer. Also it will be very interesting which repubs retire to give us a crack at open seats.
Top tier – Must contest
CA 4 – Brown running again?
CT 4 – No more Farrell – District voted for Kerry
IL 10 – If Seals runs again – District voted for Kerry
NV 3 – If Hafen runs again or Titus runs
NJ 7 – If Stender runs again
NY 25 – Maffei to have another go? – District voted for Kerry
NC 8 – Go Kissell
OH 15 – Pryce is vulnerable particularly if Kilroy has another go.
PA 6 – Got to be competitive with a new candidate – District voted for Kerry
PA 15 – Particularly if State Sen Boscola runs – District voted for Kerry
WA 8 – Burner again? – District voted for Kerry
Tier 1.5 – Must contest if open seat
CA 24 – Gallegly to retire? Otherwise tier 2
DE AL – If seat is open otherwise forget it. – District voted for Kerry.
IL 14 – Otherwise forget about it.
OH 16 – Regula will be 84 in 08. 58% against a no name candidate. Bush only 53% in 04. Otherwise tier 2.
WV 2 – If Capito runs for Senate otherwise forget it.
Second Tier – Maybe baby
AK AL – If Benson runs again
AZ 1 – Candidate recruitment critical here Simon to run again?
CA 26 – with a new candidaye Dreier should be vulnerable
CO 4 – Paccione to run again? Musgrave vulnerable either way.
FL 9 – Bilirakis only got 55% against 3rd tier opponent.
FL 13 – Worth another go. 2nd most likely chance in Florida IMHO
IL 6 – 3 guesses who the dem candidate should be.
IL 11 – Pavich to saddle up again?
IA 4 – 50/48 Bush Kerry, Only 6000 more registereed R than D but is Spencer the candidate to do it?
IN 6 – Barry Welsh is a dark horse.
LA 7 – Run Chris John run.
MI 7 – Renier going again or will it be Schwarz?
MI 9 – Knollenberg got 51.6% of vote, enough said.
MI 11 – Mc Cotter won with 54.1% of the vote but ina competitve pres state who knows? Bush got 50% in 04
MN 3 – Ramstad should be vulnerable, Wilde better not run again.
NJ 2 – LoBiondo is vulnerable. Bush only got 51% in 04
NM 1 – A new candidate can win – District voted for Kerry
NY 3 – Mejias to run again?
NY 13 – A Staten Island dem please
NY 23 – Every GOP incumbent in NY worth a look
NY 26 – Anyone but Davis
NY 29 – Toughest get in NY, even with Massa
OH 12 – 51/48 bush/kerry Tiberi is vul to the right candidate, Shamansky is not that candidate.
PA 3 – Another candidate please
PA 18 – Bush only got 54%
VA 2 – Drake only got 51% against a poor candidate.
WY AL – Trauner Trauner Trauner
Third Tier – Fegeddaboutit
CA 50
ID 1
KY 4
MN 6
NE 3
NV 2
OH 2
WA 5
1st Tier:
FL-13
NC-08
MI-07
NJ-07
NV-03
NM-01
PA-15
OH-15
NY-25
CT-04
CO-04
PA-06
OH-01
NY-29
MI-09
2nd Tier:
AZ-01
CA-04
FL-08
ID-01
IL-06
IL-10
IN-03
KY-02
MI-11
NE-02
NV-02
NY-03
NY-26
OH-02
PA-03
VA-02
VA-11
WA-05
WA-08
WY-AL
Races to give up on:
CO-05
CA-50
FL-09
NE-01
NE-03
Northeast
New England
1)Chris Shays(CT-4)
NYC Metro
2)Peter King(NY-3)
3)Vito Fossella(NY-13)
Philadelphia Metro
4)Jim Gerlach(PA-6)
New Jersey Delegation should be universally blue(except NJ-11)
Gore won
5)Frank LoBiondo(NJ-2)
6)Jim Saxton(NJ-3)
7)Chris Smith(NJ-4)
NYC Burbs-
8)Mike Ferguson(NJ-7)
Pennsylvania-
9)Charlie Dent(PA-15)-Philidelphia Metro Area
10)Phil English(PA-3)- NE Ohio Border
11)Tim Murphy(PA-18)- Pittsburgh Metro Area
Some Seats need to be saved for elimination for 2012 Redistricting
1)NY- McHugh vs Walsh can be combined. a tough primary can help Democrats the new District
– Reynolds vs Kuhl- Solid RED District in NYS
2)NJ- Garrett vs Frelyngusen- Solid RED District NJ
Mike Castle(DE)-retirement
MidWest-
Ohio-
1)Steve LaTourette-OH-14- Cleveland based
2)Deborah Pryce- OH-15
3)Pat Tiberi- OH-12- Columbus based
4)Ralph Regula- OH-16- potential retiree
5)Steve Chabot- OH-1 Cincinatti Based
6)Mike Turner-OH-3- Dayton Based
Make OH-1 and OH-3 similar to the Pre 2001 Lines
With 2012 reapportionment- combine Boehner’s District with Schmidt.
No one mentions FL-10. This is a swing district with a very old incumbent who hasn’t faced a serious challenger in ages.
I might as well answer.
Top 15
MI 7
MI 9
MI 11
PA 15
PA 3
PA 18
FL 8
NV 3
WA 8
NY 25
AZ 1
NJ 7
OH 16
NC 8
IL 6
Next 20
CT 4
NM 1
IL 10
CA 4
CO 4
IL 14
PA 6
WY AL
OH 15
NY 13
IA 4
NY 3
VA 11
NY 29
FL 10
CA 26
FL 24
NJ 3
OH 1
OH 12
Drop outs
NY 26, ID 1 KY 4 FL 9 VA 10
There are still more vulnerable Republicans, but this is the place to start.
We’ll be doing a “defense” cattle call soon. 🙂
1)Arizona-1(Renzi)
2)Connecticut-4(Shays)
3)Florida-8(Keller)
4)Illinios-6(Roskam)
5)Illinios-10(Kirk)
6)Illinios-11(Weller)
7)Michigan-7(Walberg)
8)Michigan-8(Rogers)
9)Michigan-9 (Knollenberg)
10)Michigan-11(McCotter)
11)Nevada-3 (Porter)
12)New Jersey-7 (Ferguson)
13)New Mexico-1(Wilson)
14)New York-3(King)
15)New York-25(Walsh)
16)North Carolina-8(Hayes)
17)Ohio-1(Chabot)
18)Ohio-15(Pryce)
19)Pennsylvania-3(English)
20)Pennsylvania-6(Gerlach)
21)Pennsylvania-15(Dent)
22)Virginia-11(Davis)
23)Washington-8(Riechert)
States that will lose House Seats
1)Illinios (-1)
2)Iowa- (-1)
3)Lousiana (-1)
4)Massachusetts(-1)
5)Michigan(-1)
6)Minnesota(-1)
7)Missouri(-1)
8)New Jersey(-1)
9)New York(-2)
10)Ohio(-2)
11)Pennsylvania(-1)
1)Illinios- Democratic Governor and Democratic controlled state legislature-
a)Give Bean(IL-8) a safer seat by giving McHenry CO to Manzullo(IL-16). Add Roskam’s(IL-6)NW Cook County Base to Bean(IL-8).
b)Move Shakowsky’s(IL-9)up north towards Lake County. Move Kirk’s(IL-10) down South towards Chicago. Shakowsky will have to sacrifice a portion of her Chicago Base to Kirk to make Kirk’s district more Democratic.
c)Put Roskam(IL-6)and Biggert(IL-13)in the same District-(DuPage CO). The Remaining Areas of Biggert(IL-13)-Will and SW Cook CO gets added to Lipinski(IL-3).
d)Create a New District in the South Central Part of Chicago.
e)Move Rush(IL-1)and Jackson(IL-2)South Towards Will CO.
f)Move Weller(IL-11)up North Towards the SouthSide of Chicago.
g)Manzullo’s(IL-16)DeKalb CO base gets added to Hastert(IL-14). Hastert(IL-14) gives his DuPage CO base to Roskam(IL-6
h)Put Johnson(IL-15)and Shimkus(IL-19)in the same District.
Delegation will go from 10-9(D) to 13-5(D)- Kirk and Weller both lose in the General Election. Biggert is forced to retire. either Shimkus or Johnson loses in a competive primary.
Iowa-
1)Put Boswell(IA-3)and Latham(IA-4)in the same District.
Both are purple Districts- Boswell is likely to retire.
Lousiana-
1)Put Melancon(LA-3)and Boustanty(LA-7)in the same District- c
We know the Melancon seat is likely to lose due to the fact NOLA is losing population However Boustanty seat is the least Republican.
Michigan-
1)Put Ehlers(MI-3)and Upton(MI-6)in the same District.
Minnesota
1)Put Ramstad(MN-3) and Bachmann(MN-6) in the same District. That way we can give Ramstad a safer seat and get rid of the nutcase Bachman(MN-6).
Missouri
1)Put Akin(MO-2)and Carnahan(MO-3) in the same District.
New Jersey
1)Put Garrett(NJ-5) and Fregulysen(NJ-11) in the same District. (Solid Red)
2)Add Frelyhysen(NJ-11)- Essex CO base to Ferguson(NJ-7).
The New NJ-11(Morris,Warren,Sussex). Ferguson(NJ-7)seat turns blue.
3)Put Saxton(NJ-3) and Smith(NJ-4) in the same District. (Ocean,Monmouth CO.). (Solid Red).
4)Create a new District in Burlington/South Trenton Area.
5)Add some of Andrews(NJ-1)Camden CO Base to LoBiondo(NJ-2).
New York
1)Put McHugh(NY-23) and Walsh(NY-25) in the same District. and Reynolds(NY-26) and Kuhl(NY-29) in the same District. 4 NY Republicans left one in LI, one in NYC, one in Buffalo/Rochester, One near the Canada boader.
Ohio-
1)Put Chabot(OH-1) and Schmidt(OH-2)in the same district. That way we can get rid of Mean Jean.
1)Republican House incumbents in blue/purple/weak red districts that narrowly won re-election with less than 60%.
a)Renzi(AZ-1)
b)Shays(CT-4)
c)Keller(FL-8)
d)Roskam(IL-6)
e)Kirk(IL-10)
f)Weller(IL-11)
g)Latham(IA-4)
h)Walberg(MI-7)
i)Rogers(MI-8)
j)Knollenberg(MI-9)
k)McCotter(MI-11)
l)Kline(MN-2)
m)Porter(NV-3)
n)Saxton(NJ-3)
o)Ferguson(NJ-7)
p)Wilson(NM-1)
q)King(NY-3)
r)Walsh(NY-25)
s)Hayes(NC-8)
t)Chabot(OH-1)
u)Turner(OH-3)
v)Tiberi(OH-12)
w)LaTourette(OH-14)
x)Pryce(OH-15)
y)Regula(OH-16)
z)English(PA-3)
1)Gerlach(PA-6)
2)Dent(PA-15)
3)Murphy(PA-18)
4)Davis(VA-11)
5)Reichert(WA-8)
Democrats occupy the Governorship of IL and NJ and they control the state legislature in IL and NJ.
Here how we can make the IL delegation from 10D 9R to 14D 4R
We have to protect Bean(IL-8). Defeat Roskam(IL-6),Kirk(IL-10),Weller(IL-11)and perhaps Biggert(IL-13).
1)Biggert(IL-13)is easy to gerrymander- Give the eastern part of Biggerts(IL-13) DuPage CO base to Lipinski(IL-3)-a pro life Democrat. Biggert will get the Southern Part of Rush(IL-1)-Cook County Base. Rush on the other hand gets the Southern part of Lipinski(IL-3)-Cook Co Base. Rush(IL-1)will stretch closer to the DuPage CO boarder. Lipinski(IL-3)will include a decent part of DuPage CO. Biggert(IL-13)-will include minority area’s of Southside Chicago.
IL-1 +63D
IL-3 +13D
IL-13 +1R
2)Weller(IL-11)is another easy district to gerrymander- Give the southwestern portion of Jackson(IL-2)Southside Chicago base Weller(IL-11). Give Jackson(IL-2). the Eastern portion of Weller(IL-11)Will CO. base. Weller gets minority areas of Southside Chicago.
IL-2 +63D
IL-11 +3D
3)Roskam(IL-6)- gets the western portion of Kirk(IL-10)- Cook County Base(Chicago Suburbs). Kirk(IL-10)gets the western portion of Shakowsky(IL-9)- Cook County Base(Chicago City). Shakowsky(IL-9) gets the Eastern portion of Emanuel(IL-5)-Cook County Base. Emanuel(IL-5)gets Eastern portion of Roskam(IL-6)DuPage County Base.
IL-5 +29D
IL-6 +2R
IL-9 +32D
IL-10 +11D
4)With regards to Bean(IL-8)- we give McHenry CO to Manzullo(IL-16)-giving him a safe Red District. Manzullo gives DeKalb CO to Hastert(IL-14). Hastert gives DuPage CO to Bean(IL-8).
IL-8 +7R
IL-14 +12R
IL-16 +16R
5)Dismantle- Shimkus(IL-19) District- give Springfield to IL-12(Costello) and Rural Southern IL to IL-15(Johnson).
In New Jersey
1)LoBiondo(NJ-2)-gets the Eastern Portion of Andrews(NJ-1)Camden CO base. Andrews(NJ-1)gets the Western portion of LoBiondo(NJ-2) Salem CO base- stretching towards the Delaware Boarder.
NJ-1 +24D
NJ-2 +17D
2)Put Saxton(NJ-3)and Smith(NJ-4)in the same District. Create one District containing Burlington and Mercer.(Blue District) Another District containing Monmouth and Ocean. (Purple-Red).
3)Eliminate Garrett(NJ-5)- by giving Sussex and Warren to NJ-11. Passaic to NJ-8 and Bergen NJ-9.
4)Ferguson(NJ-7)gets a portion of Payne(NJ-10)-Essex CO base
1)Alaska-AL(Young)
2)Arizona-1(Renzi)
3)California-4(Doolittle)
4)California-45(Bono)
5)California-50(Bilbray)
6)Colorado-4(Musgrave)
7)Colorado-5(Lamborn)
8)Connecticut-4(Shays)
9)Florida-5(Brown-Waite)
10)Florida-6(Stearns)
11)Florida-8(Keller)
12)Florida-9(Bilirakis)
13)Florida-13(Buchanan)
14)Florida-15(Weldon)
15)Florida-21(Diaz Balart)
16)Florida-24(Feeney)
17)Florida-25(Diaz Balart)
18)Idaho-1(Sali)
19)Illinios-6(Roskam)
20)Illinios-10(Kirk)
21)Illinios-11(Weller)
22)Illinios-13(Biggert)
23)Illinios-14(Hastert)
24)Illinios-15(Johnson)
25)Indiana-3(Souder)
26)Iowa-4(Latham)
27)Kentucky-1(Whitfield)
28)Kentucky-2(Lewis)
29)Kentucky-3(Davis)
30)Michigan-7(Walberg)
31)Michigan-8(Rogers)
32)Michigan-9(Knollenberg)
33)Michigan-11(McCotter)
34)Minnesota-2(Kline)
35)Minnesota-6(Bachmann)
36)Nebraska-1(Fortenberry)
37)Nebraska-2(Terry)
38)Nebraska-3(Smith)
39)Nevada-2(Heller)
40)Nevada-3(Porter)
41)New Jersey-3(Saxton)
42)New Jersey-5(Garrett)
43)New Jersey-7(Ferguson)
44)New Mexico-1(Wilson)
45)New Mexico-2(Pearce)
46)New York-3(King)
47)New York-13(Fosella)
48)New York-25(Walsh)
49)New York-26(Reynolds)
50)New York-29(Kuhl)
51)North Carolina-5(Foxx)
52)North Carolina-8(Hayes)
53)Ohio-1(Chabot)
54)Ohio-2(Schmidt)
55)Ohio-3(Turner)
56)Ohio-5(Gillmor)
57)Ohio-12(Tiberi)
58)Ohio-15(Pryce)
59)Ohio-16(Regula)
60)Pennsylvania-3(English)
61)Pennyslvania-6(Gerlach)
62)Pennsylvania-15(Dent)
63)Pennsylvania-18(Murphy)
64)Texas-10(McCaul)
65)Texas-32(Sessions)
66)Virginia-2(Drake)
67)Virginia-10(Wolf)
68)Virginia-11(Davis)
69)Washington-4(Hastings)
70)Washington-8(Reichert)
71)West Virgnia-2(Capito)
72)Wyoming-AL(Cubin)
Republican House Members in Blue Districts
1)DE-AL(+13)
2)NJ-2(+12)
3)NJ-3(+10)
4)CT-4(+10)
5)NY-13(+8)
6)NY-3(+8)
7)NY-25(+6)
8)IL-10(+6)
9)NJ-4(+4)
10)PA-6(+3)
11)NM-1(+3)
12)WA-8(+3)
13)FL-10(+2)
14)PA-15(+1)
15)NV-3(+1)
Democrats have a greater than 50-50 chance of picking up
1)CT-4
2)IL-10
3)NV-3
4)NJ-3
5)NM-1
6)NY-3
7)NY-13
8)NY-25
9)PA-6
10)PA-15
11)WA-8
1)84-16 (DEM)
2)84-16 (DEM)
3)60-40 (DEM)
4)70-30 (DEM)
5)67-33 (DEM)
6)53-47 (REP)
7)84-16 (DEM)
8)56-44 (REP)
9)69-31 (DEM)
10)53-47 (DEM)
11)50-50 (DEM)
12)57-43 (DEM)
13)55-45 (REP)
14)54-46 (REP)
15)54-46 (REP)
16)54-46 (REP)
17)56-44 (DEM)
18)54-46 (REP)
19)56-44 (REP)
IL-8(Bean-D)- needs to be less Republican so Bean(D)gets re-elected easily and a Democrats hold on to the seat. I will give the western portion of Kirk(IL-10) Cook County base to Bean(IL-8). I will give Kirk(IL-10)- the eastern portion of Bean(IL-9) Lake County base. – Move Kirk’s district north towards the Wisconsin boarder. IL-8 will be a Republican leaning District but a weak Republican lean ie IL-6. IL-8(53-47)REP.
I will make IL-10(Kirk-R)- more Democratic friendly or safe Democratic District ie IA-2. I will move IL-10 south towards the city. adding portion of IL-9(Schakowsky’s)Northside Chicago base to IL-10. I will then move IL-9(Schakowsky)- up north towards Lake County. IL-10 will be a (55-45) DEM. IL-9 (64-36) DEM.
With regards to IL-6(Roskam-R)- we can give the Northwest portion of IL-5(Emanuel-D)- Chicago Base to IL-6 and give Emanuel(IL-5)- the SouthEast portion of Roskam(IL-6)- DuPage County Base. IL-6(50-50) IL-5 (62-38) DEM.
IL-11(Weller-R)- gets the Western portion of IL-2(Jackson-D)- Southside Chicago Base. IL-2(Jackson-D) gets the eastern portion of IL-11(Weller-R)-Will County base. IL-11(54-46)DEM IL-2(80-20) DEM.
IL-13(Biggert-R)-who is a possible retiree. will get the Southwestern portion of IL-1(Rush-D)- Southside Chicago Base. IL-1(Rush-D) gets the Southern portion of IL-3(Lipinski-D)- Chicago Base. IL-3(Lipinski-D) gets the Eastern portion of IL-13(Biggert-R)- Dupage County base.
IL-13(50-50)- IL-3(55-45) DEM.
IL-19(Shimkus-R) gets eliminated. Springfield gets added to IL-12(Costello-D) and Rural Southern gets added to IL-15.
1)66-34(DEM)
2)57-43(DEM)
3)57-43(DEM)
4)54-46(DEM)
5)52-48(REP)
6)65-35 (DEM)
7) 51-49 (DEM)
8) 63-37 (DEM)
9) 66-34 (DEM)
10) 84-16 (DEM)
11) 54-46 (REP)
12) 60-40 (DEM)
13) 75-25 (DEM)
NJ-2(LoBiondo-R) get be staunchly blue 60-40 DEM by getting the Southern portion of NJ-1(Andrews-D) Camden County base. NJ-1(Andrews-D) gets the western portion of NJ-2(LoBiondo-R) Salem County base, moving towards the Delaware boarder. NJ-2(60-40)DEM. NJ-1(63-37)DEM.
Because a District in the Southern NJ is likely get eliminated NJ-3(Saxton-R) gets eliminated. I will give Burlingon County to NJ-2(LoBiondo). and Ocean County to NJ- 4(Smith).
NJ-4(Smith-R) will get a Southern portion of NJ-12(Holt-D)- Mercer County base . NJ-12(Holt-D) will get the Eastern portion of NJ-4(Smith-R) Monmouth County Base. NJ-4 and NJ-12 will be a 57-43 DEM.
NJ-7(Ferguson-R) will get a portion of NJ-6(Pallone-D) Middlesex County Base and NJ-6(Pallone-D) gets a portion of Ferguson-R) Somerset County Base. NJ-7(53-47)DEM) NJ-6(63-37)DEM
NJ-11(Fregulysen-R) will get the Southern portion of NJ-8(Pascrell-D) Essex County Base(Orange). NJ-8(Pascrell-D) gets the Northern portion of NJ-11(Fregulysen-R)-Morris County Base. NJ-8(59-41) DEM NJ-11(50-50).
NJ-5 (Garrett-R)- gets the Western portion of NJ-9(Rothman-D) Bergen County Base- stretching it South toward Hudson County and move NJ-9(Rothman-D) up north toward Upstate NY Boarder.
NJ-5(50-50) NJ-9(64-36) DEM.
NY-3(King-R) – Move NY-3(King-R) out west toward the Queens Boarder. Kings takes the Southern Portion of McCarthy(NY-4) Nassau County(Long Beach) Base. McCarthy(NY-4)- moves up North toward the LIE. taking away portions of NY-5(Ackerman-D) North Hempstead Base. NY-5(Ackerman-D) moves out east toward the Suffolk County Boarder. Ackerman gets City of Glen Cove.
NY-13(Fossela-R) gets the Southern portion of NY-8(Nadler-D) Brooklyn Base and NY-8(Nadler-D) gets the Northern portion of NY-13(Fossella-R) Staten Island base.
NY-19(Hall-R) gets the Northern portion of NY-18(Lowey-D) Westchester County Base. NY-18(Lowey-D) gets a portion of NY-17(Engel-D) Rockland County Base. and NY-17(Engel-D) gets the Southern Portion of NY-19(Hall-D) Orange County Base.
NY-20(Gillibrand-D) gets the Eastern portion of NY-21(McNulty-D) Albany base and NY-21(McNulty-D) gets the Southern portion of NY-20(Gillibrand-D) Saratoga Base.
NY-24(Arcuri-D) gets NY-22(Hinchey’s) Tompkins County Base and NY-22(Hinchey-D) gets Arcuri(NY-24)Tioga Base.
NY-23(McHugh-R) gets the Eastern portion of NY-25(Walsh-R) Onondaga County Base. NY-25(Walsh-R)gets the Western Portion of NY-23(McHugh-R) Oswega County Base. I will also add a portion of NY-28(Slaughter-D) City of Rochester base to NY-25(Walsh-R). NY-28 moves east to include portions of Wayne County.
eliminate NY-26(Reynolds-R) by merging his district with Slaugher(NY-28) and NY-29(Kuhl-R) by merging his District with Higgins-(NY-27).
we defeat Reynolds and Kuhl. and
Illinios- In 2008- Democrats are likely to target three Republican Districts in the Chicago Suburbs- IL-6(Roskam),IL-10(Kirk)and IL-11(Weller). Because 2008 is a presidential year and Illinios favorite son Obama will be on the national ticket- One of those Republicans are likely to lose. I am predicting that Kirk(IL-10) loses his seat in 2008 ie Charlie Bass(NH-2)- despite being a moderate Republican in a Democratic leaning district he ended up losing due to the strong Democratic wave. IL(Weller)is another Pombo- Roskam survives due to the Republican nature of that district- Bean(IL-8)is the only Democrat to represent a ruby red District- Her re-election numbers in 2008 and 2010 will be similar to Tim Holden’s. During the redistricting process- Democrats will try to make Bean district less Republican by trading portion of IL-10(Kirk) Cook County base with IL-8(Bean) Lake County Base. IL-10 with stretch toward the Wisconsin boarder and IL-8 move south. We also can trade portion of IL-10 Southern Lake County base with portion of IL-9(Shackowsky)- Northern Chicago Base. That way IL-10 becomes a safe Democratic seat ie CT-2. IL-6(Roskam) we trade portions of IL-5(Emanuel)- North side Chicago base with Roskam’s(IL-6) Dupage Co base. Roskam’s re-election numbers will be similar to Randy Kuhl(NY-29). IL-11(Weller)- we trade portions of IL-2(JJJ) Southside Chicago base with IL-11(Weller)-Will County base. IL-13(Biggert) is a possible retiree- Democrats make that district Democratic leaning by putting minority areas for IL-1(Rush) is that district and giving IL-1(Rush)- Democratic voters from IL-3(Lipinski). and IL-3(Lipinski)take Republican voters from Dupage CO. IL-3 will be a strong Democratic leaning District. IL-19(Shimkus)gets eliminated. IL delegation will be 14 D 4 R
Iowa- Boswell is a possible retiree. Democrats will hold win that seat. With regards to Latham(IA-4). Democrats have an opportunity to get rid of King(IA-5)who is more evil. make sure a Democrat suceeds Boswell(IA-3) and keep Latham.(IA-4). create a district pitting Latham vs King in a primary.
Louisiana- Melancon(LA-3)has lost the most population. The best case scenario is pit Melancon(LA-3) and Boustanty(LA-7) in the same district- The district will be a Conservative democratic District.
Massachusetts- Olver(MA-1) gets eliminated Possible retiree- Western MA.
Michigan- In 2008- Democrats have an opportunity to defeat Walberg(MI-7) and Knollenberg(MI-9). MI-9 is trending Democratic. MI-7 can be less Republican by trading portions of Dingell(MI-15) Washtenew CO base with portions of MI-7(Lenawee). Democrats can regain control of the State Senate. MI-11(McCotter)seat gets eliminated. merge MI-8(Rogers)and MI-11(McCotter)in the same District.
Minnesota- In 2008- we have an excellent chance of unseating Bachman(MN-6) and Kline(MN-2). MN-3(Ramstad)gets eliminated. This makes the Minnesota Delegation all Democratic. Democrats hold on to the MN-1 and MN-8(open seat).
Missouri- Combine MO-2 and MO-3( ST Louis) and Minority areas from MO-1 to the new District.
New Jersey- 2008- Democrats unseat Ferguson(NJ-7). That district is trending Democratic. ie NY-19. NJ-3(Saxton) gets eliminated- merging his district with NJ-2(LoBiondo).
New York- The Upstate NY Districts NY-25(Walsh),NY-26(Reynolds)and NY-29(Kuhl) are going to be targeted in 2008. Democrats will give McHugh(NY-23) a free pass. NY-25(Walsh) loses due to the Democratic nature of that district. Democrats will target Reynolds(NY-26) and Kuhl(NY-29)for elimination. pit Reynolds(NY-26) with Slaughter(NY-28 and) and Kuhl(NY-29) with Higgins(NY-29). King,Fossella,and McHugh will eventually go Democratic.
Ohio- 2008 Democrats target Chabot,Schmidt,and Pryce for defeat. all three of them survive. Space and Regula will be in the same district and Schmidt and Wilson will be in the same district.
Pennsylvania-